Trends Among MLB Division Leaders Entering July 2024

[Odeleyes]

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<br>As July kicks off, it marks the unofficial midpoint of the MLB seasonAll-Star month and the end of the first half of the campaign.  While it might seem early to look ahead, it's not too soon to begin speculating about the postseason field.  But are the teams leading their divisions right now the real deal?
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<br>Lets take a closer look at the teams currently in first place and explore how the playoff picture could shape up.  Note that all stats referenced here exclude the shortened 2020 season and focus on full seasons to give a clearer picture of trends and postseason implications.
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<br>Current MLB Standings
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<br>What it Means to Lead Your Division
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<br>Since 1996, when MLB introduced the Wild Card system, 105 of 162 eventual division champions were leading their divisions at least by July 1.  That means 65% of division winners held a division lead at the halfway mark.  So, Orioles, Guardians, Mariners, Phillies, Brewers, and Dodgers fansthis bodes well for your teams!
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<br>Power Rankings: New No.  1 Overcoming the Challenges
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<br>In the 2023 season, only two of the six division leaders as of July 1 ultimately won their divisions, the fewest since 2014 https://www.philliesplayerfanstore.com/alan_rangel_jersey-273.  In the American League, the Twins came out on top in their division, but the Rays and Rangerswho led the AL East and West, respectivelyboth made the postseason as Wild Cards.  In the National League, the Braves clinched the NL East, but the Reds and Diamondbacks, who led the Central and West divisions entering July, didnt hold on.  The D-backs managed a Wild Card spot, but the Reds missed the playoffs entirely.
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<br>For context, there have been three seasons since 1996 when all six division leaders in July ended up winning their divisionsthose were 1996, 1997, and 1999.
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<br>Historically, 17 of the 27 World Series champions since 1996 excluding 2020) were division leaders by July.  Notably, the Rangers achieved this last year but ultimately didnt win their division.
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<br>Big Division Leads
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<br>Looking at this years standings, four divisions have a lead of at least six games: the Guardians lead the AL Central by six, the Brewers hold a 6. 5-game advantage in the NL Central, the Dodgers are up by 7. 5 games in the NL West, and the Phillies boast an eight-game lead in the NL East.
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<br>This marks the fourth time since 1996 that at least four teams have held leads of six games or more entering July, according to Elias Sports Bureau.  Similar instances happened in 2019, 2016, and 1998.  For the National League, this is the third time all three of its divisions have had leads of six games or more entering July, following the American League in 2019 and the NL in 2016 https://www.philliesplayerfanstore.com/bryce_harper_jersey-118.
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<br>The Current Division Leaders
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<br>Looking at this seasons leaders, each has shared the lead at some point in previous seasons since 2016except for the Mariners and Phillies.  This is the first time the Mariners have held the division lead since 2003, and for the Phillies, its the first time since 2011.  Each of the current division leaders has won their division at least once since 2022except for the Phillies last division title in 2011) and the Mariners who last won in 2001).
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<br>Whats Next?
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<br>Though were only three months into the season, theres still a lot of baseball left to be played.  Fans of the six teams currently in the division lead can find reassurance in historical trends, as more than half of those teams tend to hold on to win their divisions.  For fans of teams not in the playoff hunt yet, theres still hope35% of teams that were leading their divisions at this point in past years didnt finish in that spot.  Time will tell how the remainder of the season unfolds.
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